Supply & Demand

Data from the USDA WASDE Report

Supply and demand for commodities is reported by the USDA in a balance sheet format where ending stocks for the year are computed by subtracting total use from the total supply. The balance sheet is constantly changing throughout the year as supply and demand changes and is updated monthly in the USDA WASDE report. Cropreports.com has created the Interactive Balance Sheet to allow you to adjust estimates in the balance sheet and see the affect on the overall supply and demand. Simply click on a number and change it to your own estimate.

Interactive Balance Sheet for UnitedStates

Million metric tons (mmt)

2018/19 | 2017/18
Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply
54.37 371.52 1.14 427.03
 
Domestic Use Exports Total Use Ending Stocks
319.55 62.23 381.78 45.25

Historical Ending Stocks

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Previous Three Years for Ending Stocks

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What are Ending Stocks

USDA Ending Stocks is the amount of a commodity remaining, or expected to be remaining, at the end of the marketing year. Ending Stocks for a previous marketing year become the Beginning Stocks of the next marketing year.

How to interpret the USDA Ending Stocks prediction

Now that you know Corn Ending Stocks are 45.25 million metric tons (mmt), how can you use this information? This is where the science ends and the art begins so you will need to develop your own methods for analyzing the data. A few hints to get you started are to compare this number to the historical average. We display the historical average for you above in the graph on the left. Click the [info] box on the graph for more details. By looking at the historical trends you can make a guess as to if the reported USDA prediction is a good estimate or if it is likely to move throught the marketing year.

More about WASDE

The interactive balance sheet displays data released in the WASDE report. The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, aka WASDE, is released every month between the 8th - 12th day of the month. You can watch the release live here at CropReports.com WASDE WATCH LIVE, where the latest report will be deleivered instantly to your screen. The report includes informaton on United States and World supply of many field crops and agricultural commodities. It is presented in a balance sheet style where each marketing year starts with that year's beginning stocks equal to the endings stocks from the previous marketing year. Estimated production is added to the beginning stocks to estimate the total supply for a given commodity. Total Use is determined by adding domestic use and exports, and then subtracted from the total supply. The remainder is the ending stocks for the marketing year. The most important information in a report release is what changed from the last report, and whether or not the change was as analyst predicted. To see all the changes from last month's WASDE report click on the SEE MORE button above.

WASDE Predictions, Estimates, and Finals

In the WASDE report the USDA reports three sets of numbers for each covered commodity labeled Predictions, Estimates, and Final. Each category reprsents a marketing year, with predictions being the most recent, estimates the previous, and final the last reported marketing year. Predictions are labelled predictions because they are the earliest guesses from the USDA as to what the supply and demand will look like for a given marketing year. Predictions always start in the May WASDE release for all crops, independent of the crops own marketing year. So, continuning our soybean example from above, the 2016/17 marketing year will first appear in the May 2016 WASDE release under predictions. The following May, when new predictions are released for the next marketing year, the 2016/17 marketing year will then be labelled as Estimates. Lastly, they will be reported as final for their third reporting year the following May when new predictions are released.